Key highlights for the fourth quarter of 2022 include record Australian carbon credit units (ACCUs) transactions, a large step up in large-scale renewables investment and a rebound in small-scale solar PV installations.

Contents

• Highlights
  
• Data workbook
• QCMR Q4 contents
  

Highlights

Confidence renewed in the ACCU market

• The proposed Safeguard Mechanism reforms and outcomes of the Independent Review of ACCUs have driven renewed interest in Australia’s carbon markets.
  • In the 2 weeks following the release of the Review and draft reforms, ACCU spot prices hit a 9-month high with reports of more than 3.2 million ACCUs in spot and forward trades.
    
• 17.7 million ACCUs were issued in 2022, whilst total holdings of ACCUs doubled to 22.7 million. New issuances are expected to exceed 18 million in 2023.
• 2022 saw a record 23 million ACCUs transacted in the secondary market, more than triple that of 2021.

Investment surges for large-scale renewables

• In 2022 developers committed to building 4.3 gigawatts (GW) of new large-scale renewable energy capacity. This is a near 50% increase from 2021.
  • 60% of total investment was announced in the second half of the year – demonstrating growing confidence in Australia’s renewable energy policy and market settings.
• This large step up in investment is critical to transition our electricity system to 82% renewable energy by 2030 to meet Australia’s legislated 2030 emissions reduction target.
• Renewable electricity met a record 35% of demand in the National Electricity Market (NEM) in 2022.
• 2.5 GW of new capacity was approved for large-scale generation certificate (LGC) creation in 2022. A similar level of capacity is expected to be approved in 2023.
• Eligible generation supported by LGCs reached 44,000 gigawatt-hour (GWh) in 2022, up from 39,000 GWh in 2021.
• Non-RET demand for LGCs jumped by 1.6 million in 2022 to 7.4 million LGCs - effectively increasing total demand by 23% above the legislated target.
• There is an effective deficit of about 15.5 million LGCs owing to shortfall refund despite supply increasing materially year on year for the last 3 years.

Small-scale solar PV saw strong recovery in Q4

• Small-scale solar PV rebounded strongly in Q4 leading to 2.8 GW installed in 2022 – the third highest installed capacity on record.
• If this trend continues, households and businesses could install record additional capacity in 2023.
• In 2022, almost 7% of rooftop solar PV systems were installed with concurrent battery storage, up from 3% in 2021.

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