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2. Large-scale generation certificates (LGCs)

Key messages

  • A record 32% average of electricity generated in the National Electricity Market (NEM) in Q3 2021 was renewable, with the 2021 calendar year average likely to slightly exceed 30%.
    • The share of renewable generation in the NEM has doubled since 2017.
  • 603 megawatts (MW) of new large-scale renewable energy capacity was approved18 in Q3, bringing the total for 2021 to 1.2 GW, a decrease from the 2.7 GW approved over the same period last year.
    • Approximately 2 gigawatts (GW) of capacity expected to be accredited in 2021, with over 1.4 GW under application at the end of the quarter.
  • Investment in large-scale renewable energy power stations appears to be trending up, signalling additional future utility scale build and generation.19
    • 1.1 GW achieved a Final Investment Decision (FID) in Q3 compared to 44 MW in Q1 and 725MW in Q2, bringing 2021 total capacity to 1.9 GW.
  • Market intelligence suggests FID for 2021 will be at the upper end of, and may exceed, the 2 to 3 GW range predicted by the Clean Energy Regulator.
    • LGC spot prices, following a normal seasonal pattern, increased sharply in September finishing the quarter at $40.40.
    • LGC supply in 2021 is expected to be at the upper end of 37 to 40 million range predicted by the Clean Energy Regulator.

Footnotes

18 This means accredited for scheme entry to be eligible for LGCs for every net megawatt hour of generation.

19 Investment is defined as the capacity reaching a Final Investment Decision (FID).


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