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Tracking progress

Tracking progress

We have developed a potential growth trajectory and five indicators to track progress towards achieving the 2020 target.

The growth trajectory assumes the legislated target is achieved in 2020 and sets out the expected large-scale renewable energy generation required to meet this outcome (Graph 10). The trajectory is only one possible pathway to meet the target. It will be adjusted each year based on actual committed and accredited capacity. Inputs and assumptions for this trajectory have been independently reviewed by ACIL Allen Consulting and found to be fit for purpose. More detail on the 2015 trajectory is available in Appendix D.

The trajectory shows the following:

  • During 2015 and 2016 the surplus supply of large-scale certificates in the market combined with generation from existing and committed power stations ensures the required gigawatt hours of renewable source electricity is achieved.
  • In 2017, generation from new projects committed after 2015 also begins to contribute to the required gigawatt hours of renewable source electricity. As with 2015 and 2016, total demand is met by drawing on existing supply of large-scale certificates.
  • From 2018 to 2020 there is an increasing reliance on new generation from projects committed after 2015 and a relatively small contribution from the surplus supply of large scale certificates.
  • From 2016 to 2020 an estimated additional 47 million megawatt hours needs to be generated to meet total demand for large-scale generation certificates in 2020.

Graph 10: Supply, demand and required generation to achieve expected total demand in 2020

Graph 10: Supply, demand and required generation to achieve expected total demand in 2020 

Note: Existing generation refers to generation from accredited power stations and projects committed in 2015. Total new generation refers to generation from projects committed post 2015 and is presented as a cumulative amount.

The indicators draw on data from the 2015 calendar year. While each indicator is presented separately (Table 2), in reality each indicator can influence, or be influenced by, one or more of the other indicators. Combined, the indicators provide an insight into the performance of the market in 2015 and its growth towards the 2020 target.

Table 2: 2015 progress indicators
2015 progress indicatorDescriptionRationale
Committed projectsCapacity (megawatts) and estimated generation output in a full year (megawatt hours) of large-scale renewable projects that have received all development approvals and secured a final investment decision according to the commercial understanding of the term Provides a firm lead indicator that build (construction) will occur in the future
Accredited renewable power stations
(see note)
Capacity (megawatts) and estimated generation in a full year (megawatt hours) of renewable power stations accredited by the Clean Energy RegulatorProvides a firm date from which new build starts to supply large-scale generation certificates
Large-scale generation certificate spot pricesThe 12 week average of large-scale generation certificate spot price as at end of the 2016 calendar yearProvides a lead indicator of the market's forward view of supply and demand dynamics
Supply and demand dynamicsRegistered large-scale generation certificates available after the surrender date of 15 February 2016 and concentration of holdingsThe number of surplus large-scale generation certificates and concentration of holdings illustrates the liquidity in the market to meet future compliance obligations
ShortfallProportion of Large-scale Renewable Energy Target liability for which the shortfall charge has been incurredMay indicate a risk of scheme non- compliance potentially leading to some unanticipated impact on household electricity bills

Note: Capacity accredited relates to total capacity of a renewable power station, not the capacity commissioned in that year. Windfarms can take up to two years until they are fully commissioned.

Further information on the objectives, administration and achievements of the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target in 2015 is in chapter 4 of this report from the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target page:

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