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Small-scale technology percentage modelling reports

10 March 2020
RET

The Clean Energy Regulator engages consultants to analyse and model aspects of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES), including:

  • reviewing the market for small-scale technology certificates (STCs)
  • providing estimates of the number of STCs to be created in a relevant calendar year
  • identifying key factors affecting the type, number and size of small-scale systems installed
  • updating projections of STCs, and
  • projecting the likely composition of renewable energy sources under the SRES.

From 2017, the consultants also take into account the reduced deeming period.

The Clean Energy Regulator does not guarantee or accept any legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, currency or completeness of any material contained in these reports.

The material in the reports does not necessarily reflect the views of the Clean Energy Regulator or indicate its commitment to a particular outcome or course of action. While the Clean Energy Regulator accepts the studies as opinions of these consultants, we recognise that there are many other opinions on the future uptake of small-scale renewables. The reports reflect STC numbers based on the scheme at the time.

Current year modelling reports

Two consultants were engaged to estimate the number of STCs likely to be created during the 2020 binding year and the 2021 and 2022 non-binding years.

The reports are based on data the Clean Energy Regulator gave the consultants current at 31 December 2019.

Interim modelling reports

In August 2019, we engaged two consultants to model small-scale (0-100 kilowatts) and mid-scale (100 kilowatts to five megawatts) solar PV uptake over the five years from 2020 to 2024. This modelling is to help understand the PV market.

This modelling did not inform the small-scale technology percentage and should be used as a guide only.

Jacobs’ and Green Energy Markets’ final reports are available below.

Previous year modelling reports

Modelling for the 2019 and 2020-21 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2018 and 2019-20 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2017 and 2018-19 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2016 and 2017-18 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2015 binding and 2016-17 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2014 binding and 2015–2016 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2013 binding and 2014–2015 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for 2013–2014 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for 2012–2013 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for 2011–2012​ non-binding small-scale technology percentage​

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