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Small-scale technology percentage modelling reports

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13 December 2019
RET

The Clean Energy Regulator has engaged qualified consultants to analyse and model aspects of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES), including:

  • reviewing the market for small-scale technology certificates (STCs)
  • providing estimates of the number of STCs to be created in a relevant calendar year
  • identifying key factors affecting the type, number and size of small-scale systems installed
  • updating projections of STCs, and
  • projecting the likely composition of renewable energy sources under the SRES.

The Clean Energy Regulator does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, currency or completeness of any material contained in these reports.

The material in the reports does not necessarily reflect the views of the Clean Energy Regulator, or indicate its commitment to a particular outcome or course of action. While the Clean Energy Regulator accepts the studies as opinions of these consultants, the Clean Energy Regulator recognises there are many other opinions on the future uptake of small-scale renewables. The reports reflect STC numbers based on the scheme at the time.

The current reports are based on data provided by the Clean Energy Regulator to the consultants that is current to December 31 2018.

From 2017, the consultants also take into account the reduced deeming period​ under the SRES.

Current year modelling reports

The Clean Energy Regulator engaged three consultants to provide forward estimates of the number of STCs likely to be created during the 2019 binding year and the 2020 and 2021 non-binding calendar years.

Interim modelling reports

In August 2019 the Clean Energy Regulator engaged Jacobs Group Australia and Green Energy Markets to model small (0-100 kilowatts) and mid-scale (100 kilowatts to five megawatts) solar PV uptake over the five years from 2019 to 2023. This modelling is to help understand the PV market.

These interim modelling results will not inform the small-scale technology percentage setting, and should be used as a guide only.

Jacobs’ and Green Energy Markets’ final reports are available below.

Previous year modelling reports

The Clean Energy Regulator engaged a number of consultants in previous years to provide forward estimates of the number of small-scale technology certificates likely to be created in those years.

Modelling for the 2018 and 2019-20 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2017 and 2018-19 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2016 and 2017-18 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2015 binding and 2016-17 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2014 binding and 2015–2016 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for the 2013 binding and 2014–2015 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for 2013–2014 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for 2012–2013 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

Modelling for 2011–2012​ non-binding small-scale technology percentage​

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