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Small-scale technology percentage modelling reports

24 August 2021

The Clean Energy Regulator engages consultants to analyse and model aspects of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES), including:

  • reviewing the market for small-scale technology certificates (STCs)
  • estimating the number of STCs to be created in a relevant calendar year
  • identifying key factors affecting the type, number and size of small-scale systems installed
  • projecting the likely composition of renewable energy sources under the SRES.

The Clean Energy Regulator does not guarantee or accept any legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, currency or completeness of any material contained in these reports.

The material in the reports does not necessarily reflect the views of the Clean Energy Regulator or indicate its commitment to a particular outcome or course of action. While the Clean Energy Regulator accepts the studies as opinions of these consultants, it recognises that there are many other opinions on the future uptake of small-scale renewables. The reports reflect STC numbers based on the scheme at the time.

Current year modelling reports

Interim modelling 2021

In May 2021, we engaged three consultants to model small-scale (0-100 kilowatts) and mid-scale (100 kilowatts to 30 megawatts) solar photovoltaic (PV) uptake over the five years from 2021 to 2025. This modelling is to help understand the PV market.

This modelling does not inform the small-scale technology percentage (STP) and should be used as a guide only.

The final reports from Jacobs, Green Energy Markets (GEM) and GHD are available below:

Modelling for the 2021 STP and 2022-23 non-binding STP

Three consultants were engaged to estimate the number of STCs likely to be created in 2021, 2022 and 2023. The average of these estimates for each year in question is used to calculate the 2021 small-scale technology percentage (STP) and the 2022 and 2023 non-binding STPs.

The reports are based on data the Clean Energy Regulator gave to the consultants, current at 31 December 2020.

Previous year modelling reports

The Clean Energy Regulator engaged a number of consultants in previous years to provide forward estimates of the number of STCs likely to be created in those years.

Interim modelling 2020

Modelling for the 2020 STP and 2021-22 non-binding STP

Interim modelling 2019

Modelling for the 2019 STP and 2020-21 non-binding STP

Modelling for the 2018 STP and 2019-20 non-binding STP

Modelling for the 2017 STP and 2018-19 non-binding STP

Modelling for the 2016 STP and 2017-18 non-binding STP

Modelling for the 2015 STP and 2016-17 non-binding STP

Modelling for the 2014 STP and 2015–2016 non-binding STP

Modelling for the 2013 STP and 2014–2015 non-binding STP

Modelling for 2013–2014 non-binding STP

Modelling for 2012–2013 non-binding STP

Modelling for 2011–2012 non-binding STP​

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