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Small-scale technology certificate market update - October 2018

03 October 2018

The Clean Energy Regulator has released the latest market update providing our view on small-scale technology certificate (STC) supply and demand.

Current market observations

  • The installed capacity of small-scale PV systems has continued to accelerate during 2018. Based on current trends we estimate that 1600 megawatts (MW) in total capacity will be installed this year, a 44 per cent increase on 2017 when 1100 MW was installed.
  • Almost 5.3 million STCs remained in the REC Registry following quarter two surrender on 28 July 2018. Five million STCs were held in REC Registry accounts and a further 277,000 STCs were pending clearing house sale.
  • If the STC creation rate continues to increase, the surplus is estimated to reach over 10 million following quarter four surrender and remain at a high level well into 2019.
  • STC spot prices have gradually softened since mid-July, closing at $34.55 at 27 September 2018. The STC spot price was $34.90​​​ at the same time last year with 5.2 million STCs held in REC Registry accounts and over 467,000 STCs pending clearing house sale.
  • A number of recent policy announcements by state governments may further accelerate installations.

For the complete STC market update please read the Small-scale technology certificate market update – October.


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