Note: In accordance with regulation 22E(3), the total amount of exemptions given for each emissions-intensive trade-exposed activity must be published by 1 October in the year to which the exemptions relate.
Further information available at page 63–65.
To track progress toward meeting the 2020 target, we analyse expected future supply and demand of large-scale renewable energy generation using a modelled trajectory. The trajectory sets out a realistic scenario that ensures enough large-scale generation certificates are available to meet expected total demand required through to 2020.
Key inputs, assumptions and outputs of the trajectory are set out below.
GreenPower and desalination are assumed to remain steady until 2020. Estimates of megawatt hours associated with the various ACT auctions are assumed to increase between 2016 and 2020. Assumptions about voluntary surrender will be reassessed each year. By incorporating all demand from voluntary surrender sources, the total demand figure in 2020 is approximately 37 million megawatt hours.
Existing supply between 2016 and 2020 incorporates expected above baseline generation, known generation and the build that has been committed in 2015. It includes assumptions about ongoing variability of hydro and other sources of generation. The above baseline supply will be updated each year to incorporate new actual and committed generation.
By contrasting existing supply against expected total demand we estimate how much additional generation is required each year to meet the annual target. These estimates are based on the assumptions outlined in Table 8.
The current trajectory predicts that approximately 6 000 megawatts of additional capacity is required meet the 2020 total demand target.
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